Research
My research focuses on two questions: how does recognizing Africa’s agrarian roots help us better understand political events on the continent, and how do organizations influence the behavior of their members? These questions come together in my dissertation, where I examine the political role of rural producer organizations (RPOs) in contemporary African politics. These organizations, commonly referred to as agricultural cooperatives, farmers’ organizations, or other appellations depending on the local context, are formal organizations uniting farming households with the goal of increasing returns from farming. One strategy to achieve this goal is to engage in political action.
Instead of viewing the African countryside as marginalized or atomistic, I argue these organizations allow rural Africans to more effectively press their political demands, helping them secure state benefits from politicians. Despite their ubiquity across the continent, the study of African politics largely ignores RPOs, instead emphasizing the role of ethnic groups and traditional institutions.
In my job market paper, I investigate a basic implication of my argument: RPO members should receive more state benefits than non-members. In two separate analyses, I find not only that RPO members are more likely to benefit but that members of more organized RPOs and members of RPOs connected to local politicians are particularly likely to benefit.
In addition to this work, I have several other research projects related to my research interests. In co-authored work, published in World Development, I create a novel dataset measuring rates of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting by birth cohort dating back to the 1950s, for the first time allowing an analysis of trends in cutting predating major international efforts to end the practice. In another co-authored project, I examine when voters in Kenya and Uganda are willing to cross their in-group, be it ethnic group or political party, in support of an out-group candidate. I find that two factors combine to help explain voting for an out-group candidate: a voter’s subjective performance evaluation of the incumbent politician and the in-group’s share of the population in the local community. Local demographics constrain a performance voter’s ability to sanction in-group incumbents.
Below I list my peer-reviewed publications and works in progress in greater detail. If you would like to read any unavailable working papers or works in progress, please send me an email.
Job Market Paper
Last Presented at the 2019 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
Abstract:
This paper examines the distributive politics of government policies targeting rural African communities. I make two claims. First, politicians mobilize supporters by steering benefits towards members of rural producer organizations (RPOs; cooperatives and farmers’ associations), economic groups whose organizational capacity makes them valuable political partners. Second, better organized RPOs and those with ties to local politicians benefit the most. I test my arguments in two ways. I begin by examining the allocation of agricultural input subsidies using survey data from nearly 32,000 households in seven African countries. Rather than following a logic of ethnic favoritism or models of core or swing voting, there is a consistent, positive relationship between RPOs and subsidies. Next, using an in-depth survey from Ethiopia’s Amhara region, I analyze how organization characteristics influence the distribution of benefits from the country’s Productive Safety Net Program. After matching on program targeting criteria, RPO members are 12 percent more likely to receive benefits than non-members, and members of more organized RPOs and organizations connected to local politicians are particularly likely to benefit. This paper contributes to our understanding of distributive politics in sub-Saharan Africa and suggests research on African politics should more fully consider the political role of formal economic groups in addition to social organizations such as ethnic groups and traditional institutions.
Link: Latest Draft
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Working Papers
Last Presented at the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.
Abstract: How do African farmers engage in the political process? I argue rural producer organizations (RPOs), civil society organizations bringing together farmers, mobilize their membership to engage in the political process. I use a mixed-methods approach in considering my argument. First, I draw on qualitative evidence from a prominent case, Côte d’Ivoire, to outline several mechanisms by which RPOs engage in politics. Specifically, I show evidence of RPOs mobilizing members through their use of public statements, their incorporation into political coalitions, and by organizing protests. These qualitative insights inform a second, quantitative analysis of nearly 25,000 individual Afrobarometer survey responses from 18 countries. I show RPO members are more likely to vote, be approached with vote-buying offers, demonstrate, and join others in raising issues, even after controlling for potential selection criteria. Finally, consistent with my argument, I show evidence suggesting RPOs are more likely to mobilize their members in incumbent strongholds, and regions of higher RPO membership density. Increasing democratic reforms in Africa give organizations like RPOs new opportunities to advocate for their members through political avenues.
Link: Latest Draft
Last Presented at the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.
Abstract:
Are African elections subject to seasonal effects? If so, why? I argue that agricultural seasonality patterns election outcomes by influencing voters’ retrospective performance evaluations. When countries hold elections after harvests, as households receive lump income payments, voters reward incumbents with their support. To consider this argument, I use satellite imagery to construct a measure of agricultural seasons and pair this measure with both an original dataset of 145 executive-election results from 32 countries broken down by subnational unit, and 120,000 survey responses from three Afrobarometer rounds. Analyzing all African election results, I first show a curvilinear relationship between the time from harvest and support for the incumbent government. Initially, voters are willing to reward governments following a harvest, but this relationship eventually reverses before the next harvest. To account for endogenous election timing, I examine quasi-experimental evidence from two Zambian by-elections triggered by the untimely deaths of Presidents Levy Mwanawasa in 2008 and Michael Sata in 2015. Finally, to understand better why these patterns exist, I probe for causal mechanisms by considering how survey responses vary by season. Respondents’ approval of their government’s performance on the economy, improving living conditions, and keeping prices down all vary by season. This paper improves our understanding of economic voting in Africa, providing clear evidence that regular changes in agricultural conditions are associated with whether voters support their government.
Link: Latest Draft
Works in Progress
Last Presented at the 2022 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
Abstract: Studies of African voting behavior often feature ethnicity in their explanations of voting decisions. In the context of a highly ethnicized polity, supporting a co-ethnic makes sense: if they are in office, your fellow in-group member can provide you with a range of personal and collective benefits. Why would anyone dare to vote for an out-group candidate in such a scenario? Nevertheless, no candidate ever receives the support of all of their fellow group members. We argue that a more institutionalist approach that accounts for the strategy of electorally motivated organizations can improve our understanding of African voting behavior. We first assert that the ethnic approach is a particular instance of any electorally salient organization, and various organizations – from parties to churches to unions – can affect vote choice across the continent. These organizations rely on various strategies to maintain electoral cohesion and prevent their voters from “crossing the electoral line” by supporting an out-group candidate. In our cases, the tactics of Kenyan ethnic groups and Uganda’s centralized party, the National Resistance Movement, are very similar. In both cases, we seek to explain why voters would choose an out-group candidate. We hypothesize that individuals with more extreme evaluations of government performance and voters living in areas with a lower density of voters belonging to the same organization are most likely to “cross the electoral line.” We test our hypotheses using finely grained data from three exit polls – two from Kenya and one from Uganda – finding strong support for our hypotheses. Our theory and results also help synthesize studies of African voting behavior stressing either ethnicity or performance.